Bitcoin Analysis

Some quick price analysis of the current environment for those who enjoy it:



So since the beginning of this year BTC price has been forming a chart pattern known as a descending triangle. Its one of the most accurate indicators in technical analysis in predicting price movement. As you can see from the chart, while BTC price has maintained a stable base at around $6k, it has continued making lower and lower highs, hence the formation of the descending triangle pattern. What the pattern predicts is that once that triangle is cleanly broken(a full candle below the triangle), price will capitulate to the downside. From what I understand, the probability of a descending triangle breaking down is roughly 3/4.

But wait, theres more! Say it breaks down, whats the price target? Well, the breakdown will be roughly equivalent to the percentage change from the top to the bottom of the triangle, in this case its about a 50% price move. So if we cleanly breakdown from $6k support, we can see ourselves at $3k very quickly. The odds of a descending triangle meeting its price target is roughly 3/5.

Theres also a lot of other reasons as to why its very probable price will capitulate quickly once we break the $6k support line. If you look at the charts, there was significant buy volume around this price range. Many of these people will panic sell once price is reasonably below $6k, and thats when the capitulation will set in, because huge sell volume will set in once that occurs. This is generally how the end of a bear market turns out. The bear market of 2018 in BTC so far has been an absolutely text book bear market in terms of price action, thats why its surprising with people constantly calling for bull runs every time the price goes up like a thousand dollars. BTC has been making lower highs since February, its nowhere near a bull market.

Having said all this, theres one major reason why I'm still very cautious and why I haven't shorted my BTC yet. Its because of the unreasonable amount of shorts:



Historically, when shorts have been this high there has always been large spikes up in price action as you can see from the chart. In fact, the last time the long/short ratio(not shown in the chart) was at this level, we made the historic bull run from $7500 to $20k. The market isnt gonna make it easy for people to make money shorting bitcoin, thats just not how trading works. So given this, I'm still remaining cautious, but I'm definitely leaning more towards the descending triangle breaking down in a violent fashion.

Is It A Good Time To Buy Stock?

Depends on your time span. You think amazon will be lower than it is now in 5 years? 10? 30? If no then buy now.

Canadian weed can be bought on pink slips but could be on the Nasdaq soon. You think a 55% drop since January is going to go lower in 5 years? 10? 30? If no then buy now if you can on pink slips or wait on Nasdaq approval.

It's always a good time to buy stocks on any given day provided you have the available time to let it grow. There's a hypothetical story of a man from Detroit who only put in money the day before all the major market crashes since 1980. He never bought more on any other day and he never sold. He went from 100k to 1 million.

There's plenty of good things to invest in long term. If you're going to have a panicked attack over a 5% drop then you should never invest.

Cannabis stocks are where it's at right now. Canada is set to legalize this summer and the flood gates will open. WEED and ACBFF are two that I'm watching, but there are plenty of others for much cheaper. I remember lilORANG mentioned in another topic that he's watching some too, I'd be curious to see what on his list. You too Gradius, any in particular you have your eye on?

Whether you invest now or not in the stock market should depend on where you think the bottom is. Have we hit the bottom or will something else happen in the near future to further hurt things?

If you invested now you’d probably still make money in the long run. . . but be ready for a wild ride.

That suggestion is for something that reflects the general market by the way (ie SP 500 index fund), if you get more specific than that you’d really need to know more about the company/market you’re investing in.

As the guy who told people to diversify away from stocks back in January (before the drops) and who also got out of the stock market before the 2007 crash (probably dumb luck twice), my guess is that there are other asset classes that will return better than stocks this year.

But the real question you need to ask is how long you intend to hold stocks and how diversified your portfolio is. If you're investing for the long haul and you're not overly exposed in stocks, there's nothing wrong with putting money into stocks right now.

Harley Davidson Stock

Consumer confidence was at its peak around the year 2000. January of 2000 is actually the highest consumer confidence has been since the 1950s, when data on consumer confidence started to be collected. Then something happened, and consumer confidence took a fucking nose dive up until around 2009, when we finally started to see an upward trend. That trend has managed to continue at approximately the same rate since Trump took office. So Trump has bungled his way into not damaging the trend consumer confidence was already following, but hasn't done much of anything to positively influence the rate of increase. Also, "the highest it's been in decades" is only true if by "decades" you mean "almost two decades".

The rate at which Black unemployment has been dropping since 2009 has slowed under Trump. The same appears to be true of Hispanic unemployment. It's highly probable that neither of these are his fault.

The ratio of jobs available to number of unemployed people has been dropping pretty precipitously since, once again, 2009. The rate at which the ratio was dropping had already started to slow by around 2014, but it's not dropping any faster under Trump.

So, the trends that we've noticed for all of these things actually started in 2009, so I guess what you should be saying is, "Thanks, Obama."

Trump bankrupted his casino because he leveraged the entire thing to where it was impossible for it to make money and survive. His high percent loans were because he left many banks holding the bag, so they would only lend him money if they got a high percentage.

It was still going under, because Trump didn't realize that surrounding states were allowing gambling. You would think a guy with the business acumen that Trump claims would make sure to know what was happening.

So, Trump had to ask daddy to come in and try and save his business. Daddy Trump went in, bought a million dollars in chips, and left (Which was a business loan, and was an illegal way to do it).

Even then, it failed, horribly.

The wealthy (households making 150,000+ a year and not living in crazy expensive cities) donate more of their wealth (percentage) than any other financial demographic. They get called selfish because the media tells you they are. Also, getting to that level of income requires hard work and skill. Which many of them, including myself, give freely to others.

I've built houses for the poor, I've donated more money than you'll make in 10 years probably, and I ran a career development center helping people get certified in many fields.

What's something you've done? Oh, that's right, complain on the internet about how you want more from people and how others aren't good just because.

I even gave a good tip here in this thread to god knows how many strangers.

Japan, China, Stocks and Finance for Expats

Sinophobes can't tell the difference between size of a stock market vs size of an economy. And remember when Samuel Slater stole industrial designs from the British? Or when the Japanese was known for producing cheap knockoff products during their own industrialization phase? Nowadays China is moving on from that phase, and produce plenty of quality products from Huawei and Lenovo. LMAO @ singling out China for something almost all countries had a hand in, and which some, like Mexico, Vietnam, and India, continue to do so.

Also one that predates the People's Republic of China by decades and has always had a functioning government. No matter how much the government in Beijing may like to pretend otherwise, the Republic of China has been a nation-state since its formation and nothing short of a full scale invasion is going to change that in the foreseeable future. Really the question should be why the presence of a small, peaceful nation to their south-east bothers the People's Republic of China so much.

The lack of enforcement of IP laws are problematic in all developing countries, not just China. Furthermore, China has reformed its IP laws in the last five years and have implemented special courts dealing with such disputes. Considering the foreign expansion of Chinese firms, strong IP laws are a necessity.

https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/chinas-progress-on-intellectual-property-rights-yes-really/

Meanwhile, Westerners continue to download copyrighted works from the likes of Pirate Bay (hosted in Sweden) and other torrent services, but it's okay when White people do it, am I right?

And LOL @ suggesting the BS myth that creative people don't exist under communism. Ever heard of great filmmakers like Sergei Eisenstein and Zhang Yimou? Writers like the Strugatsky Brothers and Liu Cixin, the latter who won the 2015 Hugo Prize? Just because you Westeners never heard of them doesn't mean that they don't exist.

The proposed system according to Western media is exaggerated to hell, and there are so much confusion between what's really proposed and what's just hearsay.

There are currently existing systems such as Sesame Credit and Tencent Credit, respectively used by the media conglomerates Alibaba and Tencent as some form of loyalty credit system, similarly to many existing in Western countries. There are used to determine a person's trustworthiness when it comes to taking credit and loans, and having a high credit score with a certain company means you receive periodic rewards like vouchers and discounts.

The social credit system, as a national reputation system, is based on tech from aforementioned Sesame Credit system. It is still being discussed, and even among Chinese social media its implications are hotly debated, and it is unlikely some of the more controversial measures, like internet browsing habits, are going to be implemented due to China's notorious bureaucracy problems as well as potential backlash. There is also a separate rating system for companies to stimulate market trust, and companies with higher ratings can receive lower tax rates and more governmental investment opportunities.

Overall the system is still being proposed and some measures can be seen as draconian, but it is a far cry from the dystopian nightmare Western media is proclaiming. For instance, similar systems in terms of data collection already exist in the Western world, banks and other financial institutions already use systems to determine a potential client's reliability. The Chinese government is simply more blatant about it.

I don't know if you are trying to obfuscate the issue, or if you really don't see the difference, but the type of IP theft in China that people complain about comes in several forms, but it has nothing to do with internet piracy. Those are completely different things.

One type of IP theft was already mentioned, wherein companies will be forced to surrender their intellectual property as a price of doing business in China at all. Another type is just plain old theft through hacking. Another is copyright/trademark violation of the sort that gets made into memes.

https://tinyurl.com/yddsgvoe

that kind of thing.

Piracy is stealing a product so you don't have to pay for it. The sort of IP theft/copyright violations people complain about it China are when you steal or obtain something through dubious means and profit from it. Like remember when Ninebot purchased Segway? They literally stole Segway's product wholesale, made huge profits off of doing so because Segway had no real means of fighting back, and then turned around and used the profits they got from their theft to purchase Segway.

Or look up Dejan Karabasevic, American Superconductor, and what happened with China's wind turbines (it's as fascinating as it is horrible).

So, no, the pirate bay is not a meaningful counter to the type of thing that China does. And claiming that they've cleaned up their act is:

1. Not true

2. Small comfort to those whose lives have already been ruined even if it were true

3. Kind've beside the point when you're talking about huge projects like the American Superconductor story (they already got away with the theft, so it's pretty meaningless for them to be like "we won't steal it again")

What About Bubble Trance?

Fundamental coins like holo/nano/chainlink get shilled out on 4chan and reddit, which is all you need to know. they're full of bagholders desperate to sell, yet just like every other alt they're on the brink of being replaced by something that does what they do better.

Only attracting users can save alts from being worthless, speculators dont care long term, and the ones that do aren't buying outside of btc/eth. alts are short term only, and they get one chance during a bullrun. look at all the alts from 2014 that did nothing until the bullrun in 2017, they pumped, and now they're going back to zero.

If you're holding onto one of these sub-billion dollar alts that's already pumped once in a bull run before, it's over, move on.

Don't argue with them. The people on this site are complete brainlets. I got fudded shilling omg at $1, BNB at 30 cents, Walton at 50 cents. I got laughed about by about 10 people last week telling them to buy in at 440 vits because we aren't close to being finished yet.

Just the fact that so many people are calling it a pajeet pump and dump when it's been doing about 30 million in volume for the past two weeks should tell you all you need to know about the intelligence of this board.

Nobody actually purchases Holo on the BTC pair. The ETH pair is the price mover, and people buy/sell on the BTC pairing accordingly to make money off the spread. In order for the ETH pairing to take off, it has to eat all of the ETH walls and then absorb all the BTC spread traders dumping on them. This is also why volume is so high, because coins literally have to be purchased twice for the price to move.

Is it possible to find out the names of the people that own the banks, and how much they own? Clearly there must be a way, the profits go somewhere, and someone in the company must answer to the owners, or a proxy which ultimately is linked to the owners.

Also, there are rumors on the Internet that the Rothschild family alone owns $2 trillion, which would be 1% of the world's total wealth. How would one go about proving or disproving this?

Large majority of shares are owned by companies who are yet again owned by other companies. I simply can't find any face behind it, apart from the direct holders which have the most miniscule amounts. 

Is it possible to answer the questions: 

If Goldman Sachs shareholders are to make a decision, the opinion of which person is most important? 

If Goldman Sachs makes $100, which person gets the most of it?

Shadow banking is so convoluted that its become untraceable, even with the internet

These people own the funds that own the funds that own banks, with money distributed throughout the families. its pretty much impossible to trace it effectively

You will never see these people on the worlds richest people list, because they arent individuals.

Theyre bloodline families, and they are activly trying to take away the traditional family structure from societie's norms. but youll have to go to pol for that

Here's the problem with that line of thinking though. You think you repel people because you're "eccentric", but really it's because you have no dignity, and others can sense that in you. It is possible to both be an individual who doesn't live according to what other people think, and also not repel people. You just need to have some self-respect and live a somewhat dignified life. If that's not on the table, then by all means don't come whining to the internet about muh roasties and muh real love doesn't exist when you've made yourself un-loveable through your own actions.

Money Mindsets: Aphria Inc. (APHQF)

I have been in the MJ sector for over 2 years now just one year after Trudeau election and banking on his promise he would legalize marijuana. It was a long shot as most politician don’t fulfill their promises. But I thought this guy just like his dad PE will want to leave a legacy his dad did with inter alia the Charter Rights and Freedoms and I knew Justin with his ego would want to be part of history. Now with that said I chose Tweed (now CGC), aphria and Aurora back then doing my DD. I sold aurora and bought more of the 2 others. I really never was active on boards waiting holding my shares, took profit along the way and adding on dips. During those 2 years have witnessed the evolution of this sector and its almost endless potential. I have no doubt that this industry will become so big that everyone who invested today will be greatly rewarded in the near future. So forget about the day traders and their bashing comments on this board stay long and y’all be happy.

Do not think I saw this posted - sorry if it is rerun - from investor place yesterday. I understand that there are a lot more pieces coming out now and many are "pump up" pieces, however, thought I would share as APH is his top valued MJ play.Aphria (OTCMKTS:APHQF) remains my favorite among the larger Canadian marijuana stocks. Named after the Celtic word for ?agreeable,? the agreeability goes beyond its core product. Aphria has grown into the third largest producer in Canada. Only Canopy and Aurora (OTCMKTS:ACBFF) exceed Aphria in size.Aphria?s focus centers around #$%$. The company has become a lead producer of products such as capsules and vaporizers. It has also ventured into the recreational market. Like Canopy, it has also partnered with an alcoholic beverage company. In May, it partnered with Southern Glazer?s Wine and Spirits for distribution rights.Aphria has also become the largest profitable cannabis producer in Canada and it has remained so since 2016. Like most Canadian marijuana stocks, it trades at a relatively high multiple. Its price-to-earnings ratio currently stands at about 88. Such a P/E remains expensive by S&P 500 standards. However, market leader Canopy does not have a P/E at all and trades at over 121 times sales. In comparison, APHQF stock looks relatively inexpensive.Growth also looks promising, at least over the long-term. Analysts do not expect to see profit growth for the upcoming fiscal year. However, for the next year, they predict profits will grow by 450% to 55-Canadian-cents-per-share (42 cents, USD). That would take the forward P/E for the next fiscal year to around 30.Hence, against aggressive growth targets, the price of APHQF stock looks reasonable for this industry. Even if it misses that growth target, Aphria still appears to enjoy the best near-term financial conditions among the larger Canadian marijuana stocks. For those looking for a cannabis stock with a market cap above $2 billion, I prefer APHQF stock over its larger counterparts.

Money Mindsets: Finisar Corporation (FNSR)

Shares of Finisar Corp. (fnsr) were up 7.7% in after-hours trading Thursday after the optoelectronics company reported better-than-expected July-quarter results and delivered an earnings forecast that exceeded analyst projections. Finisar expects revenue of $315 million to $335 million for its fiscal second quarter, while analysts were expecting $333 million. The company projects adjusted earnings per share of 19 cents to 25 cents, compared with the FactSet consensus of 18 cents.

The ER on Thursday is a no brainer, all optical companies have good ER and don't see any reason why Fnsr will not. Beat or miss, analysts know it s gonna improve because the climate and environment say so. Optical company's business especially the margin is at its best or getting there somehow. We might have seen the bottom last quarter if not , at the worst is this quarter so no matter what, this stock will go up. Then again, I don't care, I'm here to double my investment. I feel very good with this company because it has a catalyst, and it's gonna come or it might already be in the ER results this Friday. Cash is $1.2B and a tiny improvement on VCSEL sales will mean more is coming in December, Glta..

WHEN Fnsr gets the Sherman plant running with approved Apple sensor's does that mean that somebody somewhere is going to lose market share from Fnsr OR does the product Fnsr is peddling to Apple a different product all together?

I know they are working on the 6" wafer that I believe would be exclusive from Fnsr, but is there anything else they would be making to take some market share away from others in the sector?

Money Mindsets: General Electric (GE)

Big money and Wall Street crooks want the market overall down 3-5% and want to short big names like GE etc, to get in at much lower costs, so they can greedily make even more money off the broken backs of GE, its workers, widows, orphans, retirees, and main street. Their greed knows no bounds. That is why they keep colluding to push out negative analyst reports, and negative articles saying GE needs to come down more in price. The big money backed ORCHESTRATED BEAR SHORT is alive and well until they meet their current levels of greed......

Yesterday Nike lost $4B in market cap based on an announced corporate decision. Yesterday and today GE market cap is down over $4B and not a word from the corporate office. Is there a CEO and leadership team? Where are they? Summer is over. Unbelievable the disconnect between GE management and the GE investor.

It would be important to know exactly who sold a significant block of stock at the open and why. Knowing the identity of the seller would explain their motive, if a serious attempt at manipulation is in progress and what the likely outcome will be for this stock. IMHO an investment bank is working in conjunction with a hedge fund to ultimately acquire a significant portion of GE stock. Once you control a significant percentage , you can usually control a board and do what you like with this behemoth. It is still undervalued and the sum of its parts exceeds its current sticker price.

Is UBS also one of the Market Makers for GE? Why would they downgrade GE with a target price of $13, when the stock was trading below that price on Tuesday?

What is the agenda behind JPM and now UBS bashing GE at these low price to book value, high yield (~4% dividend) levels after the stock has been thru relentless selling during the past 9 months? Who are they accumulating the shares for?

It is sad to see WS criminals trying to steal shares from the retailers (retirees, GE employees and pensioner households), by way of constant bashing and price MANIPULATION using HFT algo controlled trades

Wish SEC stood up to these criminals who ate trying to loot the retail investors!